2nd Writethru, 10:10PM Friday: In a weekend where there aren’t any major-studio wide releases, the most we can expect from the box office is that the product that’s out there just hangs in. And despite the downturn in traffic that this frame brings as audiences are distracted by the onset of the holiday season, November’s top two family titles — Disney’s Moana and Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them — are holding on to their respective No. 1 and 2 spots.
Moana is showing muscle now on course for a second weekend of $30.3M, that’s just $1.3M shy of Frozen‘s second weekend. Wow. That -47% ease from its Black Friday charged frame a week ago outstrips many of her Turkey Day release relatives including Toy Story 2 (-51%), Frozen (-53%), Tangled (-56%) and definitely last year’s dud The Good Dinosaur (-61%). The Pacific femme hero sails past $100M tomorrow, and by Sunday will dock north of $121M. On a pure 12-to-12 day comparison, Moana beats Frozen‘s running cume by 22%, however the latter had a limited release in its first weekend before blasting out wide over Thanksgiving.
Social media monitor RelishMix noticed how Disney was keeping Moana alive on social. The studio posted the song “You’re Welcome” performed by Dwayne Johnson on their Vevo music channel on Monday and clocked close to 4M views. The Moana Facebook has been adding about 18K fans a day, which is very strong for a kids title, while on YouTube, an additional 24.2M views have clocked from over 342 videos in the last week.
Fantastic Beasts is now looking at a third weekend that’s -62% with $17.2M and a cume by Sunday of $182.2M, still running behind the first Harry Potter movie by 17% at the same point in time. In regards to the pic’s momentum on social, RelishMix observes that 350 total videos have sped close to 15M views, while the pic’s Facebook page continues to add close to 25K per day.
Paramount’s duo Allied and Arrival are about one spot from another in third and fifth place. Allied is looking at $7.7M for a 12-day cume that’s under $30M. Ouch. Amy Adams’ alien movie is looking at $6.6M, -43%, in its fourth go-round for a running total of $72.4M. The final stateside landing for the UFO movie lies in the $80M range. Today it flew past the century mark worldwide.
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BH/Tilt’s horror release Incarnate, the only wide entry of the weekend, is coming in just outside the top 10 with $2M. Pic cost $5M. This is part of a model that the distributor is looking to learn from with each release. They’re targeting uber-genre fans with a minimal digital spend (nothing even in the range of a Ouija 2, or even the estimated $20M that was shelled out to launch the $9M teenage comedy The Edge of Seventeen).
That digital spend detail isn’t a line either: RelishMix noticed that Incarnate has a strong social media universe of 70M propped by WWE thanks to wrestler Mark Henry, who has a mysterious role in the movie. He’s actively sharing materials across his social pages (4.4M), all of which have notable followings. And, David Mazouz (400K), who fans primarily recognize as little Batman from FOX’s Gotham, is young and social and he’s promoting the film across his official pages and feeds. Not a big studio spend here to launch, but that was never the intention. Not to mention, if you’re a fanboy, you’re saving your money to see Rogue One two weeks from now. Or else your friends told you not to go, as Incarnate was forked by a C- CinemaScore (Bs are typically strong enough for a horror title).
BH/Tilt has grossed more in the past from other microbudget titles, read Green Inferno opened to $3.5M and made a little more than 2x that in the end with $7.2M. The Kevin Bacon-Matt Walsh film The Darkness hit the sweet spot for the label over the summer earning close to $5M in its opening weekend and $10.7M final domestic. San Andreas helmer Brad Peyton was attracted to Incarnate because it offered a unique spin on an exorcism movie with Aaron Eckhart in an interesting role. Also the filmmaker wanted to make a horror film, and the Blumhouse model provides directors with creative freedom.
What award didn’t Roadside Attractions/Amazon’s Manchester by the Sea win this week? The pic delivered Casey Affleck best actor at the Gothams, New York Film Critics Circle and National Board of Review with a best pic win at the latter. That’s not counting all the other wins it took at NBR and NYCC as well as seven Critics’ Choice noms. All of this is propelling the Kenneth Lonergan drama into the top 10 after expanding from 48 to 156 locations with $2.2M in its third weekend.
Pablo Larrain’s Jackie from Fox Searchlight is putting up some great numbers at its five locations spread between New York and Los Angeles for the seventh best per theater of the year with $51K following the re-release of Howard’s End ($52,5K). Opening weekend will be $255K. The avant garde biopic has an 87% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes and expands to 40-plus markets in the near future. Some box office trivia: this is the weekend that Natalie Portman’s ultimate best actress Oscar winner Black Swan lept from six years ago with an opening weekend of $1.4M at 18 sites. It was also a Fox Searchlight release. Jackie is straight-up drama appealing to an upscale crowd, while Black Swan, a noir thriller, resonated after months of festival play hooking the date night crowd, horror fans, LGBT, and upscale audiences.
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The top 11 pics for Dec. 2-4, 2016 per industry estimates as of Friday evening:
1). Moana (DIS), 3,875 Theaters (0) / $6.5M Fri (-70%) / 3-day cume: $30.3M (-47%)/Total: $121.8M/Wk 2
2). Fantastic Beasts… (WB), 3,988 theaters (-156) /$5.3M Fri. (-71%) / 3-day cume: $17.2M (-62%)/Total: $182.2M/Wk 3
3). Allied (PAR), 3,160 Theaters (0) /$2.2M Fri (-55%)/3-day cume: $7.7M (-39%) /Total: $29.6/Wk 2
4).Doctor Strange (DIS), 2,935 theaters (-73) /$1.8M Fri (-67%) /3-day cume: $6.7M (-51%) /Total cume: $215.5M/Wk 5
5). Arrival (PAR), 2,915 theaters (+473)/$2M Fri (-55%)/3-day cume: $6.6M (-43%)/Total:$72.4M/ Wk 4
6.) Trolls (DWA/20th Century Fox), 3,156 theaters (-166) /$1.09m Fri (-73%)/3-day cume: $4.9M (-54%) /Total Cume: $141.7M/Wk 5
7). Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate), 2,494 theaters (+162) / $958K Fri (-56%)/3-day:$3.1M (-42%)/Total: $57.1M/ Wk 5
8.) Bad Santa 2 (BG/MX), 2,945 Theaters (+25) /$901K Fri (-61%) / 3-day cume: $2.8M (-55%)/Total: $13.8M/Wk 2
9). Almost Christmas (UNI), 1,556 theaters (-213) /$692K Fri (-70%)/ 3-day cume: $2.4M (-58%)/Total: $38.1M/ Wk 4
10.) Manchester by the Sea (RSA/AMZ) 156 theaters (+108)/$653K Fri/3-day: $2.2M (+85%)/Total: $4.3M/Wk 3
11.) Incarnate (BH/T) 1,737 theaters/$800K Fri (includes previews of $120K)/3-day: $2.1m/Wk 1
Jackie (FSL) 5 theaters/$80K Fri/$51K PTA/3-day: $255K/Wk 1